production · PROBABLE_OUTAGE
Likely inverter outage
Pattern consistent with an inverter outage; inspect inverter availability, alarms, and the affected electrical boundary.
- Period
- Aug 20, 10:48 AM–Aug 20, 11:48 AM
- Persistence
- 60 min
- Confidence
- high · 90%
- Performance
- 53.0%
- Modeled expected mean
- 1.38 MW
- Measured actual mean
- 732.7 kW
- Estimated lost energy
- 649.7 kWh
- Estimated lost value
- $75
Why this is Priority #1
- Critical severity contributes to operational priority.
- Deterministic finding confidence is 90%.
- The site-level production shortfall contributes to priority but is not attributed exclusively to this finding.
The site-level shortfall informs priority but is not assigned solely to this finding.
Decision support · modeled estimate
Decision economics for Priority #1
Investigate remotely
Review remotely within 3 business days
- Energy loss rate
- 649.7 kWh/day
- Modeled range: 519.8 kWh–779.7 kWh
- Revenue exposure
- $75/day
- Modeled range: $60–$90
- 30-day exposure
- $2,242
- Modeled range: $1,793–$2,690
- Priority score
- 72.0%
Technical reasons
- • Technical severity is warning.
- • The underperformance pattern persisted across the analyzed period.
Economic reasons
- • The modeled loss has an estimated revenue impact.
- • Investigation cost is not configured.
- Recoverable value
- $1,513
- $897–$2,286
- Investigation cost
- —
- Modeled net value
- —
- Break-even
- Unavailable
- Expected persistence
- 30 days
- Modeled range: 14–45 days
- Decision confidence
- 86.0%
- Deterministic rule score
Assumptions and uncertainty
- • Future values are decision-support scenarios, not guaranteed savings.
Detected condition
Likely inverter outage
Detection confidence 90%
Likely classification
Site-Wide Underperformance
Classification confidence
78%
Deterministic score · not a probability
Why ArraySignal thinks this
- The pattern persisted for 60.0 minutes.
- Modeled expected output averaged 1382.4 kW.
- Measured actual output averaged 732.7 kW.
- The actual-to-expected ratio was 53.0%.
Evidence against certainty
- The probable cause is not a confirmed field diagnosis.
Missing evidence
- Inverter-level output, alarm history, curtailment status, and aligned on-site irradiance are unavailable.
Alternative explanation
- Device Zero Output — 55%
Vendor context
- The reference adapter supplies no vendor alarm or operating-state confirmation.
Recommended investigation
Compare inverter-level output and alarms with site controls and irradiance before assigning the broad loss to equipment.
Classifier stage24-reference-site-v1
Why ArraySignal thinks this
Probable plant availability issue
Confidence 90%
Deterministic rule confidence, not a calibrated probability or confirmed field diagnosis.
Evidence supporting
- The pattern persisted for 60.0 minutes.
- Modeled expected output averaged 1382.4 kW.
- Measured actual output averaged 732.7 kW.
- The actual-to-expected ratio was 53.0%.
Evidence against
- No inverter fault or status code corroboration was evaluated.
- Only site-level production was evaluated; neighboring inverter behavior is not available.
Competing explanations
- Inverter or array derating
- Curtailment or export limiting
- Soiling, shading, or weather-input bias
- Meter or sensor bias
Data limitations
- No material telemetry completeness limitation was detected.
Evidence through Aug 20, 11:48 AM · Rule arraysignal-reference-rules-v1
What should I check next?
Recommended next check
Obtain inverter-level AC output for the affected interval and compare it with available neighboring inverters.
- Access
- Remote check
- Expected information gain
- high
- Effort
- low
Why it matters
This helps distinguish inverter-specific derating from a site-wide irradiance, curtailment, or expected-model issue.
Data needed
- Timestamped inverter-level AC power
- Aligned irradiance or expected production
Helps distinguish: Inverter or array derating · Curtailment or export limiting · Soiling, shading, or weather-input bias
Other possible checks
- Retrieve inverter fault and event codes for the affected interval. (Remote check, low effort)
ArraySignal recommends investigation steps; it does not perform physical tests or confirm field conditions.
Recommended investigation
Review inverter alarms, telemetry completeness, curtailment, weather assumptions, soiling, and maintenance history.